IPL2014 MI Vs RR Match Analysis

As a cricket fan, I have to admit that the tension filled last playoff match in IPL 2014, between MI and RR was nerve wrecking. I was elated with the result specially after the happy ending that Mumbai managed to achieve by qualifying to the playoffs after their dismal performance in UAE during the initial phase of the tournament. As a Mumbai Indian fan though I was happy to see my team qualify, As an engineer with strong affinity to numbers, I felt the calculations of net run rate shouldn't have caused so much of confusion in deciding what needs to be achieved! It is very critical to have a logically correct methodology in place,  when it comes to matches like these when the victory depends on the fourth decimal in the net run rate calculations!

Its only prudent to adopt the most suitable method that recognizes the winner based on the most accurate logic to declare a winner specially when there are such millions of dollars of prize money and reputation of a franchise at stake. It was disheartening to watch Dravid throw his cap in disdain after the loss.

What ever was the outcome of the match, irrespective of the teams involved in the match, the net run rate calculations should have been more transparent and to an acceptable reason.

The calculations are perplexing. Firstly about their methodology of adopting "Average Runs per over" as the quantitative measure and not "Average Runs per ball" to decide the winner. This is because the former measure approximates and equates the 6 deliveries of an over in to unequal measuring points between two numbers. Secondly, rounding off the net run rate (NRR) to two or three decimal points after considering "Average Runs per over" as the measure is further going to effect the chances of a team. This match just showed us the loophole in the erroneous methodology adopted.

From the looks of it, the above NRR calculations show that there seems to be no reason to understand why even in first place Mumbai was allowed one more ball if the NRR is calculated based on the "Runs per over" for judging the qualifying team. MI was a clear winner with NRR of 0.078 over Rajastan's 0.077. Since this has not happened, contrary to the "Runs per over", "Runs per ball" should have been considered for the NRR calculations. But here comes the more confusing question of why they had considered the NRR rounded to three decimal places? which otherwise would have made Mumbai the clear winner with the fourth decimal. Either case, MI should have been declared winner, which means there was a blunder in setting up the qualifying target !

Nothing of this has happened and to add to all this chaos, more confusion prevailed when the commentators Harsha and Ravi Shastri just kept throwing in more numbers with all the convoluted calculations by saying " Boundary required of the next ball" no no hold on "just 2 runs would suffice" etc etc !

Let us now consider the numbers after the last ball was bowled, Since there was a six hit, there is no confusion since the calculations in "Average Runs per ball" method and ""Average Runs per over" method all showed Mumbai as the clear winner. This isn't the end of confusion yet, I am still wondering how commentators got those "4 needed" oh no "just 2 needed" to win from, when there was already a clear qualified team!

For a casual spectator like me, In addition to the missed run out chances, dropped catches, ball being given to Praveen Tambe in the 13th over, two full tosses, etc, it just gives me further more reasons to doubt if this match was fixed!  Hope this isn't the case, as it doesn't bode well for the already dented reputation of IPL as a brand. Hope more common sense and more logical reason prevails in such close match results!

PS: I welcome being corrected in my calculations and proved otherwise, if somebody spots one.